A breakdown of NATO could lead to a more fragmented approach to European security, according to military analyst Jean-François Bélanger. He emphasizes that the alliance currently unites diverse national threat assessments, enabling coordinated responses. Without this framework, efforts to create a standalone European defense force might deepen divisions among member states, undermining unified action and slowing the deployment of critical resources during crises.
Bélanger warns that regionalization of security arrangements would weaken collective defense mechanisms, making it harder to respond swiftly to emerging threats. The current structure allows for shared intelligence, joint planning, and pooled capabilities across borders. Disrupting this system risks replacing strategic cohesion with isolated national interests, ultimately reducing the continent’s overall resilience in an increasingly complex global environment.