A closer look at “New study reveals conditions enabling El Niño and La Niña predictions 12 months ahead”, exactly as the source publishes it. Researchers have pinpointed specific oceanic and atmospheric conditions that allow for predicting certain El Niño and La Niña events up to a year in advance, a major leap from current forecasts that are reliable only about six months out. The study, published in Nature, identifies when the tropical Pacific Ocean is in a particular state—characterized by a deep pool of warm water in the western Pacific and strong easterly trade winds—that makes the climate system more predictable.
In these windows, scientists found they could forecast the onset of El Niño or La Niña with high confidence 12 months ahead, whereas at other times the system is too chaotic for such long-range outlooks. This listing links straight to the original page, where the content is available in full.