The end of the war in Ukraine may not bring peace, according to experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their analysis warns that a Russia diminished by conflict could still become more aggressive, leveraging its wartime experience and hardened resolve to challenge NATO and Western institutions. Even with military setbacks, the country might pursue greater assertiveness in its foreign policy, reshaping regional dynamics. This shift calls for a reevaluation of current security assumptions and long-term strategic planning across Europe.
Eugene Rumer, the lead analyst behind this assessment, emphasizes that policymakers must prepare for a post-war environment where Russia remains a persistent threat. He highlights the risk of underestimating Moscow’s capacity to adapt and exert influence despite weakened forces. The discussion underscores the need for proactive and flexible strategies to maintain stability in Europe. As the situation evolves, sustained vigilance and coordinated international responses will be essential to address emerging challenges.